Analysis by Vivien Yor
1. ENERGY REALISM: NUCLEAR POWER AS THE FOUNDATION OF THE DIGITAL ERA
The crisis in the Middle East and instability around the Strait of Hormuz have definitively shifted nuclear energy from the category of an "environmental choice" to that of a "guarantor of national survival." For India, which imports up to 80% of its hydrocarbons, this has become a point of no return.
Strategic Turnaround
In 2026, the Government of India officially approved an ambitious plan: to bring the installed capacity of nuclear power plants to 100 GW by 2047. This represents more than a tenfold increase compared to the current ~8 GW. We are witnessing a transition to a model of «Energy Sovereignty», where independence in power generation becomes the very basis of political sovereignty.
Russia – India Partnership: A New Level
Cooperation with Rosatom is evolving beyond mere equipment supplies. It is shifting towards «fleet mode» construction, which drastically reduces costs and accelerates the commissioning of new capacities. Projects like Kudankulam are becoming the backbone of the energy system.
During India’s BRICS presidency in 2026, special emphasis is placed on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). This is the ideal solution for powering distributed digital hubs and Data Centers, ensuring network stability even in remote regions.
Nuclear Power as «Fuel for AI»
A curious phenomenon of 2026: major technology corporations (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) have become the main lobbyists for nuclear energy development.
- Data Centers and AI clusters require a stable baseload 24/7, which wind and solar cannot provide without expensive energy storage systems.
- Nuclear energy is becoming a direct competitive advantage. Microsoft is already implementing projects to restart power capacities specifically to ensure the operation of neural networks.
Conclusion: The world is entering the era of the «Great Convergence». Nuclear power has become the common denominator: for the West, it is decarbonization; for India, it is independence; for Russia, it is influence.
2. ASTROPOLITICS: THE MOON AS THE NEW FRONTIER
If the Earth is already divided, Space is the new map of the world. In 2026, the competition for resources has moved to cislunar orbit.
Two Poles of Influence
The world has effectively split into two technological camps:
1. Artemis Accords (USA + India + 40 countries): Establish rules for resource extraction and "safety zones."
2. ILRS Project (China + Russia): Focused on creating a permanent base by 2035 and controlling the lunar South Pole, where water ice is concentrated.
Helium-3: Myth and Reality
The topic of lunar Helium-3 has moved from science fiction to business planning.
- Short-term perspective: Helium-3 is already in demand for quantum computers and medicine at a price of about $20 million per kg.
- Long-term perspective: 25 tons of this substance could theoretically provide enough energy for the entire US economy for a year. However, the entry cost ($200–250 billion) still makes it an investment in the future rather than immediate profit.
Hydrogen as the Connecting Link
On Earth, India is actively developing the production of «Pink Hydrogen» at nuclear power plants. On the Moon, hydrogen extracted from lunar ice will become the basis for interplanetary fuel. Thus, a single energy chain is being formed: Earth — Orbit — Moon.
3. «FORCED CONVERGENCE»: WHEN FEAR IS STRONGER THAN HOSTILITY
My forecast is that the period of «absolute zero» relations cannot last forever. Economy and security will inevitably force parties to find common ground. Four key «thawing points» by 2030:
1. Climate and Disasters: Nature knows no borders. Risk management (droughts, melting glaciers in the Himalayas) will require the creation of global non-political structures, where India can act as a moderator.
2. Space Security: The problem of space debris will make flights impossible for everyone unless a unified control system is created. This will become the first legal "link" between opposing blocs.
3. AI Safety: The fear of uncontrolled Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will prove stronger than geopolitical ambitions. The world will be forced to create its own «Digital Geneva» to regulate algorithms.
4. Biosecurity: The fight against viruses and genetic technologies will remain the only sphere where data exchange will continue even under sanctions.
My Concept: The world will not become "one whole" again, but it will become deeply interconnected at the technological level.
4. GREEN PRAGMATISM AND CIRCULAR ECONOMY
The first and most powerful "snowdrop" breaking through the ice of tension will be the combination of «Business + Ecology».
- New Globalization: The old WTO system will be replaced by «Network Business». Companies will build bridges between technological clusters, not between ideologies. India acts here as the perfect hub, allowing work with the whole world while maintaining sovereignty.
- Circular Economy: India is turning its problems (overpopulation, pressure on nature) into advantages. It is becoming the largest testing ground for water purification technologies, vertical farming, and waste recycling.
- Benefit for All: Standards for "green" products will have to be made universal, which automatically lowers trade barriers and creates new ground for dialogue.
5. AI: REVOLUTION OR «BUBBLE»? HUMAN REMAINS THE MAIN ACTOR
The most sober view on Artificial Intelligence, which I share, is as follows: AI is a powerful tool, but not a mind.
Three Levels of AI Justification
1. Economic: AI is justified only when it manages physical processes (logistics, energy grids, agriculture), rather than simply generating text. In India, it is needed as a "dispatcher" for a billion people.
2. Social: AI must be a copilot, not a pilot. It replaces routine, but must not replace humans, otherwise it will lead to social explosion.
3. Geopolitical: This is the «Shield of the 21st Century». Those who do not implement it will fall behind and become a digital colony.
Heuristics vs. Statistics
The Main Thesis: AI works on statistics, while humans work on heuristics.
An algorithm optimizes the path, but it cannot set a goal if it is not in the database. It is incapable of intuitive breakthroughs or decision-making under conditions of complete uncertainty.
Summary: The bubble of expectations will inevitably burst, but a powerful «exoskeleton» for human capabilities will remain. India wins this race because its culture inherently places humans above technology, using AI as an instrument, not an idol.
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