doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21279032
Introduction
In 2026, the global system is undergoing its deepest transformation since the end of the Cold War. We are witnessing a fundamental shift in the very logic of global civilization. The era of a unipolar world, U.S. global hegemony, open borders, and the free movement of capital, technology, and people is coming to an end. It is being replaced by a new reality, which is already strictly codified in the laws, doctrines, and budgets of the world's leading power.
The "Fortress America" strategy is neither a spontaneous reaction to current crises nor classic isolationism. It is a deliberate, calculated, and fully resourced transition to a new model of dominance designed for the period up to 2056. While the United States previously bore the economic burden of acting as the "global policeman," it has now decided to concentrate all its forces, technologies, and finances on protecting its own territory, turning the Western Hemisphere into an impregnable, self-sufficient citadel. From a global leader, the U.S. is transforming into a remote supreme arbiter that observes global events from a secure rear while retaining key levers of influence: finance, technology, trade routes, and the rules of the game.
For Russia, Europe, China, and the countries of the Global South, these changes are of fateful significance. America is leaving regions with freedom of action, but along with it, it hands over full responsibility for everything that happens there. Outside the "Fortress" zone, a multipolar world is emerging where each region must build its own security and economy. This opens up huge opportunities for those who can fill the vacated niches, but it poses critical risks for players who fail to adapt in time.
1. Official Status and Regulatory Framework
All current transformations have a strict legislative foundation approved at the highest state level in the U.S. and backed by full budget funding. The regulatory foundation of the doctrine consists of four key documents:
U.S. National Security Strategy — 2025 (NSS‑2025): Published on December 12, 2025. This doctrinal document defines national interests and development priorities up to 2050. It officially codifies the abandonment of the global policing function and establishes a regional concentration of forces. The central formulation states: “The security of the Homeland and dominance in the Western Hemisphere are absolute priorities, superseding any commitments abroad.” A special section is dedicated to "Digital Sovereignty," laying the legal groundwork for an internet ecosystem independent of external infrastructure.
The Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine: Approved on December 2, 2025, during the presidential address to Congress. This amendment elevates the U.S. right to exclusive influence in the Western Hemisphere to an absolute status. Any military, economic, or political presence of extra-regional powers within a 3,000-mile radius of U.S. shores is defined as a direct threat. The scope of this provision is officially extended to Greenland, Iceland, the entire Arctic zone, the Panama Canal, and the Caribbean Basin.
U.S. National Defense Strategy — 2026 (NDS‑2026): Adopted on January 23, 2026. The document was developed by the Department of War (the agency was renamed from the Department of Defense by decree on January 15, 2026). The structure consists of 12 extensive sections containing detailed technical specifications, budgets, and implementation timelines for decades to come.
Executive Order No. 14186: Signed on January 15, 2025. A direct-action regulatory act "On the Establishment of the Unified Air and Missile Defense System 'Golden Dome'," which was later included in the appendix to NDS-2026 as priority project No. 1.
2. The Core of the Doctrine: Drivers of Transition
The strategic realignment of the U.S. is driven by three objective factors that made the old model of global presence economically unviable and dangerous:
Exhaustion of the Unipolar World Model: Maintaining hundreds of military bases in over 80 countries and a constant presence across all oceans became an unsustainable economic burden. The costs of maintaining hegemony began to exceed the revenues derived from imperial status.
Changing Nature of Military Threats: The emergence of hypersonic weapons, drone swarms, and high-precision strike capabilities neutralized the natural protection provided to the U.S. by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Oceans ceased to be a barrier, requiring a shift in focus from controlling the periphery to deep defense of the homeland.
Concentration of Critical Assets: Relocating vital manufacturing, financial institutions, and scientific centers to the U.S. requires a 100% guarantee of their safety from external shocks.
The new geopolitical model operates on a strict "Center — Periphery" principle:
The Center: A zone of absolute security (U.S., Canada, Greenland) where finance, high technology, governance, science, and energy are concentrated. Within this zone, all processes are stable and tightly controlled.
The Periphery: The rest of the world outside the Western Hemisphere. Regional powers are granted freedom of action on one condition: their projects must fit into the global dollar and technological coordinate system controlled by the Center and must not directly threaten its security.
3. Financial and Budgetary Parameters
The "Fortress America" program is excluded from standard defense spending and is funded through a separate macroeconomic framework.
The Department of War budget for fiscal year 2026 amounted to $901 billion, and when factoring in classified items, intelligence community funds, and special programs, the total exceeded $1.04 trillion. This represents a record 19.7% increase compared to 2024. Daily spending to secure the doctrine stands at $2.85 billion. Projections show that total investments over the first 10 years will exceed $12 trillion, and by 2056, total costs could reach $35–40 trillion.
"Fortress America" Budget Distribution Structure (2026):
├── Naval Forces & Fleet (Ocean Control) ────────────────── 28%
├── Air & Missile Defense "Golden Dome" (Sky Protection) ── 22%
├── Digital Infrastructure (Outernet Project) ───────────── 14%
├── Land Border Defense ("Wall and Screen") ─────────────── 12%
├── Strategic Development of the Arctic & Greenland ─────── 10%
├── Underground Complexes & Continuity of Government ────── 8%
└── Other Reserve Programs ──────────────────────────────── 6%
Sources of Funding:
Reallocation of Funds: Approximately $350 billion annually is freed up by eliminating international aid programs and closing overseas military bases.
Fiscal Burden: Introduction of an additional 15% tax on transnational corporations, a tax on digital operations, and increased import tariffs.
Targeted Government Bonds: The issuance of special "America's Security" bonds in 2025–2026 raised $2.1 trillion.
4. Anatomy of the "Fortress": Key Elements
Aerospace Perimeter: The "Golden Dome" System
Developed under Executive Order No. 14186, this is a three-tiered, layered missile and air defense system:
Tier 1 (Space): An orbital constellation of 420 tracking satellites providing continuous global coverage and detecting launches within seconds.
Tier 2 (Atmosphere): Laser (up to 1.5 MW) and kinetic interception systems deployed on high-altitude airships and mobile platforms to intercept hypersonic and maneuvering targets at ranges up to 500 km.
Tier 3 (Land/Sea): Next-generation ground-based THAAD and Patriot complexes, alongside shipborne Aegis systems.
As of May 2026, 84 first-tier satellites have been deployed into orbit (tracking accuracy at 99.2%), and ground nodes are under construction in 16 states (35% completion). Full closure of the airspace is scheduled for 2032–2033. The calculated interception probability for targets is estimated at 88–92%.
Land and Maritime Perimeter: The "Wall and Screen" Program
The concept involves eliminating border transparency and creating a deep, layered security zone up to 150 km wide along a 12,800 km perimeter. On land, a 9-to-12-meter reinforced fence is being built, enhanced by vibration sensors, thermal imagers, and AI-driven anomaly analysis systems. The southern border with Mexico was effectively closed by January 2026 (1,800 km of structures completed), reducing illegal crossings by 94%. On the northern border with Canada, the visa-free regime has been abolished, and comprehensive cargo inspections have been introduced. Maritime borders up to 200 miles out are patrolled by autonomous robotic ships.
Underground Infrastructure: Continuity of Government
A network of deep, protected facilities guarantees the manageability of the state and nuclear arsenal even under conditions of total destruction of surface infrastructure. The modernized Cheyenne Mountain Command Center (Colorado, 610 meters deep) can withstand a direct megaton blast and operate autonomously for up to 12 months. The system is backed up by Raven Rock (Pennsylvania), regional nodes like "Meridian" (Texas) and "Greystone" (Virginia), and a network of 32 bunker facilities connected by quantum communication lines. The readiness of these facilities stands at 70–100% as of May 2026.
Navy: The "Steel Ring"
Under the "Maritime Dominance — 2040" program, a perimeter is being built based on the "Three Oceans + Key Straits" principle. The backbone of the submarine forces will consist of 12 Columbia-class SSBNs carrying D-5 Life Extension ballistic missiles (12,000 km range). As of May 2026, 4 submarines are already in service. The surface fleet relies on 10 Gerald R. Ford-class next-generation aircraft carriers equipped with 6th-generation fighters and Constellation-class frigates. The total strength of the U.S. Navy reached 492 warships by May 2026 (with a goal of 650 units by 2032). In March 2026, the Panama Canal effectively came under full U.S. Navy military control.
Digital Sovereignty: The "OUTERNET" Project
Developed under Executive Order No. 14201, the goal is the complete abandonment of transoceanic undersea cables in favor of an autonomous space infrastructure ("Internet in Orbit"). The orbital constellation will comprise 3,200 satellites at altitudes of 350–1,400 km using inter-satellite laser links (speeds up to 1.5 Tb/s, latency under 15 ms). As of May 2026, 412 satellites have been launched, serving critical nodes of the Pentagon and Treasury. A sovereign domain space, .usf (United States Fortress), has been launched, completely isolated from the global ICANN system.
5. The Case of Greenland: The Key to the Northern Gates
Under the "Trump Corollary," Greenland is defined as an integral part of the security of the Western Hemisphere. Its integration involves three aspects:
Military: Deploying radars and interceptors seals off the shortest missile flight trajectories from Eurasia and allows control over the Northern Sea Route.
Resource: The island contains 38 million tons of rare earth elements (25% of global reserves), oil (17.5 billion barrels), gas (148 trillion cubic meters), and vast freshwater reserves. The potential asset value by 2050 is estimated at $3.8–4.2 trillion.
Geopolitical: Displacement of Denmark and the EU from the Arctic. The administrative price of integration is estimated by the U.S. at $500–700 billion.
Integration Scenarios and Estimated Probabilities:
Associated State (50%): The Puerto Rico model. Defense, finance, and resources transfer to U.S. control in exchange for annual subsidies to Copenhagen ($3–5 billion) and a higher standard of living for Greenlanders.
Full Purchase (45%): A direct deal with Denmark under pressure from economic tariffs and threats to withdraw U.S. troops from NATO.
Military Takeover (5%): Deploying forces based on a "national security threat" in the event of global escalation.
As of May 2026, the process is in its final phase: a massive U.S. consular section has opened in Nuuk, outsizing the Danish embassy; expansion of the Pituffik Space Base has begun (budget: $2.8 billion); and the local government receives direct funding from Washington, which has already raised the population's standard of living by 22%.
6. SWOT Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses of the Doctrine
To objectively evaluate the "Fortress America" doctrine, its inner advantages must be contrasted with its critical vulnerabilities.
Strengths
Cost Optimization: The U.S. sheds inefficient expenditures related to maintaining stability in volatile regions.
Absolute Security of the Core: Creating physical ("Golden Dome", Navy) and virtual ("Outernet") barriers minimizes the risks of an instantaneous strike on the decision-making center.
Economic Nationalism: Concentration of capital, technologies, and production lines within a secure perimeter.
Weaknesses
Colossal Financial Burden: Spending on security reaches 18–20% of GDP, leading to a soaring national debt (already exceeding $42 trillion) and the slashing of domestic social programs like healthcare and education.
Cyber Vulnerability: The extreme complexity of software code in systems managed by AI creates critical entry points for targeted cyberattacks. A breach of a central control node could turn defensive systems against their creators.
Internal Polarization: The growing gap between the elite, secured in underground complexes, and taxpayers provokes social unrest. Pentagon analysts estimate the risk of civil unrest and state secession up to 2040 at 32%.
Opportunities
Managed Multipolarity: Encouraging the autonomy of regional powers pits them against one another in local conflicts, turning the U.S. into a monopoly supplier of weapons, food, and energy.
Resource Dictatorship: Total control over Greenland’s rare earth metals and fresh water guarantees technological supremacy for centuries.
Threats
Asymmetric Response: Hypersonic maneuvering re-entry vehicles from Russia and China already possess a 40–50% probability of bypassing the "Golden Dome" (projected to rise to 70% by 2030).
Vulnerability of the Orbital Tier: The potential deployment of anti-satellite weapons and lasers against the "Outernet" constellation. Destroying just 15–20% of the satellites could "blind" the defense perimeter.
Long-term Loss of Influence: Left to their own devices, states in Eurasia and the Global South will inevitably create financial instruments, payment systems, and technological standards completely independent of the U.S., wiping out its status as the supreme arbiter by the 2050s.
7. Timeline Forecast (2026–2056)
Phase 1: Formation (2026–2030). A period of aggressive deployment. The integration of Greenland and the Panama Canal will be legally completed, and the initial frameworks of the "Golden Dome" and "Outernet" will go live. This phase is accompanied by heavy cuts to social spending in the U.S. and the announcement of new, self-serving rules of engagement for the outside world.
Phase 2: Stabilization (2030–2045). The total withdrawal of U.S. bases from Europe and the Middle East. Multipolarity becomes reality as autonomous Eurasian, Asian, and African centers of power take shape. The U.S. monetizes the instability of the periphery, recording high GDP growth within its secure circle. For Russia, this stage will be a period of consolidation and regional leadership across Eurasia.
Phase 3: Transformation (2045–2056). The structural costs embedded in the doctrine begin to produce a diminishing return. Regional blocks on the periphery strengthen to the point where they completely abandon the dollar and U.S. patents. Inside the U.S., secessionist movements and economic overheating intensify. A new historical cycle will begin, forcing the U.S. to reopen to the world on the terms of just one among equal players.
Key Conclusions and Summary
"Fortress America" is not a theoretical forecast but an active strategy backed by trillion-dollar budgets and codified in NSS-2025 and NDS-2026.
This move is not a sign of weakness but a more sophisticated form of dominance, externalizing security costs to third countries while maintaining control over vital nodes (SWIFT, USD, patents).
The planning horizon up to 2056 means that the rules of the game for the current generation have already been rewritten. The U.S. withdrawal from the continent is the greatest historical opportunity for Russia to consolidate its geopolitical space and stand as a sovereign pole of the new era. The answer to whether Russia can realize this potential will be revealed in the coming years.
Compact Bibliography
National Security Strategy of the United States (NSS-2025). The White House, December 12, 2025. — Sections: "Regional Concentration", "Digital Sovereignty".
The Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. Presidential Address to Congress, Washington D.C., December 2, 2025.
National Defense Strategy (NDS-2026). Department of War, Washington D.C., January 23, 2026. — Sections: "Spatial Defense", "Control of Oceans", "Continuity of Government".
Executive Order No. 14186 "On the Establishment of the Unified Air and Space Defense System 'Golden Dome'". Federal Register, January 15, 2025.
Executive Order No. 14201 "On the Development of Autonomous Orbital Digital Infrastructure 'Outernet'". Federal Register, February 10, 2025.
Strategic Mineral and Energy Assessment of Greenland. United States Geological Survey (USGS) Report, No. 2026-1104, March 2026.
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